Flee Fail %

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Adael
Posts: 1081
Joined: Sun Mar 22, 2015 12:34 am

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Adael » Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:30 pm

Harun wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 1:23 pm
Adael, it's possible I guess, but I'm confident that I'd flee from plenty of 4 exits over a month of active PK, or even just walking through aggro zones.
For sure. Was just thinking of the number of 4 exit rooms in pk you actually have extended fights in and flee from. Much smaller than the number of 2/3 exit rooms I’d say.
If the logs you looked at had only a handful of flees from 4 exits, all of which were successful, and for some reason the newer logs had a large quantity more of those 4 exit flees, then the 2 or 3 failures wouldn’t necessarily be indicative of anything because the ratio of failures/total isn’t statistically significant.

Moot point since Paladyr’s post though! :P
Mildly surprised that wil plays no part in flee success, but I suppose we probably misconstrue it with the shittiness of fleelag with low wil.

Paladyr, is the mood checked only performed once (when you enter the flee command), or every time it rolls an exit?

Harun
Posts: 168
Joined: Wed Sep 02, 2015 9:45 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Harun » Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:42 pm

Thanks. Is it right that wimpy flee success is determined by binomial probability, then? I punched some numbers into the calculator here. I tried .66666 for "probability of success", 6 trials, and success as 1 (fail or succeed flee.) If I'm reading it right, that gets around 98% chance of succeeding flees in a 4-exit. 3-exits end up with about 90% of success, which feels right.

I have some embarrassing news to report, which is that I checked my log and was one room off of where I thought for the 2 successive 4-exit flees: 1s of barracksdoor in Fal Dara rather than 2s of barracksdoor. So still a 4-exit, but one that probably had both doors closed. Whoops!

Thanks again for the information.

arston
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:05 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by arston » Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:30 pm

Harun wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:42 pm
Thanks. Is it right that wimpy flee success is determined by binomial probability, then? I punched some numbers into the calculator here. I tried .66666 for "probability of success", 6 trials, and success as 1 (fail or succeed flee.) If I'm reading it right, that gets around 98% chance of succeeding flees in a 4-exit. 3-exits end up with about 90% of success, which feels right.

I have some embarrassing news to report, which is that I checked my log and was one room off of where I thought for the 2 successive 4-exit flees: 1s of barracksdoor in Fal Dara rather than 2s of barracksdoor. So still a 4-exit, but one that probably had both doors closed. Whoops!

Thanks again for the information.
Its actually a lot higher than that. your calculation will only show if it passes EXACTLY one time out of the six, and doesnt count any of the times it passes more than once. since we only care about if fails every single time or not itd be easier to do 1 - (.33333)^6 . since thats 1/3 chance happening 6 times in a row, anything other than that its going to go through, which would be just over 1/1000 chance for 4-exit wimpy flee, 1.5% chance for 3 exit, or 13.5% chance of failing a flee in a 2-exit room, assuming wimpy for each flee.

For any non-wimpy flees does it check mood each of the six rolls? or does it only check mood one time and roll for direction 6 times, odds are very, very different depending on if it checks mood once for the whole flee or once for each direction check.

Paladyr
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:35 am

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Paladyr » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:49 pm

arston wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 3:30 pm
For any non-wimpy flees does it check mood each of the six rolls? or does it only check mood one time and roll for direction 6 times, odds are very, very different depending on if it checks mood once for the whole flee or once for each direction check.
It checks mood on each iteration. So one mood roll for each direction roll.

Paladyr
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:35 am

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Paladyr » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:51 pm

Adael wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 2:30 pm
Moot point since Paladyr’s post though! :P
Mildly surprised that wil plays no part in flee success, but I suppose we probably misconstrue it with the shittiness of fleelag with low wil.
Wil only affects flee lag.

Eol
Posts: 704
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:34 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Eol » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:58 pm

I don't see anything about the obvious coding that makes you flee back the way you came when someone flee traps you in a dead end :D

I anecdotally submit to you that one time I fled the same way 7 times in a row. No way that's by chance :)

That said - maybe the actual explanation should change how I perceive a 2 exit flee. Its not that I'm fleeing one way or another. Its that I'm fleeing 6 different ways hoping one of them will be one of the 2 exits. I should be grateful to even get out of the room.

Paladyr
Posts: 40
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:35 am

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Paladyr » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:13 pm

Eol wrote:
Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:58 pm
No way that's by chance :)
Yep, just bad luck (or good luck, if you wanted to flee that way 7 times).

To be fair, no algorithm exists that is truly random. So “chance” is only as good as the random number generator and the one we use is part of the C Standard Library. 🤓

arston
Posts: 168
Joined: Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:05 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by arston » Tue Aug 31, 2021 2:01 am

If you flee while riding when you are next to a no-ride room, and it rolls that no-ride direction will it stop rolling and give you the result "you can't ride in there!"?

as an example say theres n, e, and w flees available but east is no-ride and has a door. If the door is closed you get the 6 rolls and if one of them is a north or west than thats the direction you will flee. BUT, if the door is open and u roll a east flee will it stop rolling and tell you that you cant ride in there?

Fermin
Posts: 453
Joined: Sat Sep 10, 2016 12:16 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Fermin » Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:11 pm

What order does it look at the room directions in?

Aureus
Posts: 968
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:13 pm

Re: Flee Fail %

Post by Aureus » Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:23 pm

Fermin wrote:
Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:11 pm
What order does it look at the room directions in?
At random.

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