Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

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Mux
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:46 pm

Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Mux » Fri Jul 16, 2021 6:52 pm

There is a problem with how hit points are calculated on age-based rerolls. For any given con value, the average number of hit points you get is significantly lower than if you had statted and levelled the char today. I recently rerolled two very old chars I had forgotten about. Here is a table of their hit points rolls better and worse than the expected value grouped by con for 15 con or higher:

Code: Select all

| CON | LEVEL | EXPECTED | N. ROLLS < | N. ROLLS > |
|-----+-------+----------+------------+------------|
|  15 |    39 |    322.0 |         23 |          0 |
|  16 |    39 |    338.0 |         15 |          0 |
|  17 |    39 |    353.5 |         14 |          2 |
|  18 |    39 |    369.5 |         16 |          0 |
|  19 |    39 |    400.0 |         15 |          0 |
|  15 |    33 |    316.0 |         14 |          0 |
|  16 |    33 |    332.0 |         30 |          0 |
|  17 |    33 |    347.5 |         18 |          0 |
|  18 |    33 |    363.5 |         15 |          0 |
|  19 |    33 |    394.0 |         10 |          0 |
One expects that the number of rolls less than the expected value should be roughly equal to the number greater than the expected value but it clearly is not. Imagine tossing a coin 170 times and it only comes up heads 2 times. You can safely conclude that the coin is not fair. In the same way, this data proves that the hps rerolling algorithm is incorrect.

The difference is very large. For example, the 19 con reroll I went with for my level 33 guy had 373 hit points - 21 less than the expected.

Elysia
Posts: 7908
Joined: Sun Feb 15, 2015 1:29 pm

Re: Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Elysia » Sat Jul 17, 2021 7:53 am

It's still a dice roll. In my case, rerolls always yielded much better than leveling, so I don't recognize this at all.

Also, with all the fc homelands I've changed and subsequent rerolls, I've not noticed that rolling lower either.

Bad luck happens.

Mux
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:46 pm

Re: Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Mux » Sat Jul 17, 2021 9:30 am

The probability of the observed outcome is about 9.712*10^-48. Roughly as likely as winning the Mega Millions jackpot six times in a row.

Eol
Posts: 704
Joined: Mon Aug 31, 2015 10:34 pm

Re: Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Eol » Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:13 pm

# 1 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[17] Con[16] Hps[336] Move[128]
# 2 - Str[17] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[129]
# 3 - Str[17] Int[15] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[310] Move[128]
# 4 - Str[19] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[340] Move[130]
# 5 - Str[16] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[16] Con[19] Hps[391] Move[134]
# 6 - Str[19] Int[10] Wil[15] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[334] Move[131]
# 7 - Str[15] Int[12] Wil[11] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[366] Move[132]
# 8 - Not good enough...
# 9 - Str[18] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[19] Hps[404] Move[132]
#10 - Str[15] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[17] Hps[345] Move[133]
#11 - Str[14] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[132]
#12 - Str[17] Int[11] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[18] Hps[376] Move[131]
#13 - Str[19] Int[15] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[307] Move[127]
#14 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[15] Dex[15] Con[17] Hps[372] Move[132]
#15 - Str[14] Int[14] Wil[14] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[314] Move[127]
#16 - Not good enough...
#17 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[311] Move[127]
#18 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[16] Con[18] Hps[368] Move[129]
#19 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[15] Hps[318] Move[127]
#20 - Str[16] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[308] Move[124]

I've felt for awhile like only 19 con is reliable. 18 in game can produce 380ish at 51, but 17-18 just cover too great a spread. I'm pretty grateful to the Imms/Vampa/whoever for making the human cons 19 in the new prerolled since I think it greatly increases the likelihood that a character will have satisfying hps.

Draz
Posts: 559
Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2017 9:14 pm

Re: Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Draz » Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:09 am

I don't have any data this time however anecdotally I haven't seen outright 'good' hps roll since the change was put in.

Mux
Posts: 17
Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:46 pm

Re: Age based rerolls yield very low hit points

Post by Mux » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:02 am

Eol wrote:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 2:13 pm
# 1 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[17] Con[16] Hps[336] Move[128]
# 2 - Str[17] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[129]
# 3 - Str[17] Int[15] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[310] Move[128]
# 4 - Str[19] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[340] Move[130]
# 5 - Str[16] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[16] Con[19] Hps[391] Move[134]
# 6 - Str[19] Int[10] Wil[15] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[334] Move[131]
# 7 - Str[15] Int[12] Wil[11] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[366] Move[132]
# 8 - Not good enough...
# 9 - Str[18] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[19] Hps[404] Move[132]
#10 - Str[15] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[17] Hps[345] Move[133]
#11 - Str[14] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[132]
#12 - Str[17] Int[11] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[18] Hps[376] Move[131]
#13 - Str[19] Int[15] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[307] Move[127]
#14 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[15] Dex[15] Con[17] Hps[372] Move[132]
#15 - Str[14] Int[14] Wil[14] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[314] Move[127]
#16 - Not good enough...
#17 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[311] Move[127]
#18 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[16] Con[18] Hps[368] Move[129]
#19 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[15] Hps[318] Move[127]
#20 - Str[16] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[308] Move[124]

I've felt for awhile like only 19 con is reliable. 18 in game can produce 380ish at 51, but 17-18 just cover too great a spread. I'm pretty grateful to the Imms/Vampa/whoever for making the human cons 19 in the new prerolled since I think it greatly increases the likelihood that a character will have satisfying hps.
Assuming these rolls are for a level 51 character then they are all below the expectation except for #14 which is above.

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