Re: Melee calculator
Posted: Mon Apr 06, 2020 2:37 pm
(one of) Your post(s) has the individual chance of a _single_ player landing a hit (x).
Chance of a _single player_ not landing a hit is (1-x)
Chance of _all n players_ not landing a hit is (1-x)^n
Chance of _at least one of n players_ landing a hit is 1 - (1-x)^n
Bolded my additional percentages next to your numbers.
Chance of a _single player_ not landing a hit is (1-x)
Chance of _all n players_ not landing a hit is (1-x)^n
Chance of _at least one of n players_ landing a hit is 1 - (1-x)^n
Bolded my additional percentages next to your numbers.
You'd have to check a lot more numbers to really see how different setups are affected I reckon, but for these setups the pb kit is gonna get hit 4-5% more often than the db kit while unbashed (and I think my first post made it clear how much that skyrockets when bashed). People are min-maxing their bash chance by 1-2% ever since those mechanisms were released, so take from that what you will of how people view small percentagesReyne wrote: ↑Mon Apr 06, 2020 1:45 pmOK I went back and re-did my numbers (edited that post) and now I am more confused. Perhaps someone can double check me here.
Say against 2 opponents with 180 OB:
146 DB and 156 PB = 13.78% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 25.66%
132 DB and 178 PB = 13.78% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 25.66%
... well that means between those two options there is literally no difference in odds to get hit in melee.
Against 3 with 180 OB:
146 DB and 156 PB = 24.38% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 56.77%
132 DB and 178 PB = 26.33% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 60.02%
Against 2 opponents with 170 OB:
146 DB and 156 PB = 9.4% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 17.92%
132 DB and 178 PB = 9.4% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 17.92%
Against 3 with 170 OB:
146 DB and 156 PB = 18.43% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 45.73%
132 DB and 178 PB = 20.13% to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 49.05%
I dunno that seems extremely negligible to me unless I screwed something up real bad entering my numbers.
Out of curiosity I did against 4 with 170 OB:
146 DB and 156 PB = 24.38% chance to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 67.30%
132 DB and 178 PB = 27.68% chance to get hit by each P(SOMEONE_LANDS_A_HIT) = 72.65%
I guess you've still got some vanishingly small chance with the dodge gear to evade a hit but even against 4... where is the PB split?