Reasoning with Raeza

[Mariah]

Raeza Sedai accepts Mariah's petition for a lesson from the White Ajah, which she tailors not only to Mariah's Gray Ajah Apprenticeship, but to Mariah's class Raeza had just attended. A strong correlation was made between the principles of debate, which Raeza focused on fallacy arguments, and the skills necessary for Gray-themed negotiations.

Point of view: Mariah
Main character: Mariah
Main character: Raeza

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Hall of Inferences of the White Ajah
The oval room is entirely filled by a single immense table, ornately
carved chairs with white leather cushions placed around it at equidistant
intervals. Behind each chair sits a large blackboard, smeared with chalk
dust accumulated over many years. Slender soaring windows pierce the high
walls, stretching to the distant ceiling. A large arch to the north leads
out of the chamber, heavy wooden doors swinging on cast-iron hinges.
[ obvious exits: N ] [ N: door ]
A chair made of red oak rests next to the table. [2]
Lady Raeza Dovoros is standing here.
A silver-haired Aes Sedai sits here, reading.
A White Sister walks by, deep in thought.
Carlinya Sedai stands here, pale of skin and cold of manner as the white fringe on her shawl.

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza gestures at the door with her hand.

Mariah curtseys before her.

The door silently swings shut and lock with a soft *click*.

Raeza sits down on a stout oaken chair.

Raeza says 'Have a seat, child.'

Mariah sets her bag of class supplies on the floor, out of the way.

Mariah finds a seat close to the desk and sits down.

Raeza says 'That was a long class, are you sure you need no break?'

Raeza says 'You may take a few minutes if you need.'

Mariah says 'If I may, I could certainly use some water. I have some with me.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'Just let me know when you are ready.'

Mariah gets a water skin from her pack, opening it on the way.

Mariah raises the skin to her mouth and takes some large gulps until it is empty.

Mariah wipes any leftover water away with a handkershief as she lets out a contented sigh.

Mariah says 'Thank you for that, Aes Sedai, I am ready.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'That was a well organised class. And on a timely topic as I understand it.'

Mariah grins knowingly.

Raeza says 'I understand relations with Cairhien have been somewhat strained in recent memory.'

Raeza says 'Not that I have been keeping much abreast of matters outside the Tower of late.'

Mariah says 'It was a class I created many years ago, that Chloro Sedai encouraged the scheduling in with a great eye to timliness.'

Mariah says 'Is it that your duties keep you to your wing, Aes Sedai, or do you not normally stay abreast of politics?'

Raeza says 'Well, I have spent quite long time within the White quarters in deep reflection, as we Whites have a tendency to do from time to time.'

Mariah says 'I thought having a panelist would give it an interesting learning aid, and Lady Aira was the first I thought of.'

Raeza says 'But when I am more about in the world, I do find it important to keep up with politics. We are all ambassadors of the Tower, as you said.'

Raeza nods at Mariah.

Mariah nods at her.

Raeza says 'It must not have been the most comfortable position for her to agree, but good for you to reach out.'

Raeza says 'So, you are an apprentice of the Grays I understand?'

Mariah says 'On the contrary, she also got a captivated audience where she had some influence over.'

Mariah says 'Yes, Raeza Sedai. Nevirha Sedai is my mentor.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Mariah says 'Though I have had a lot of guidance from Everesta Sedai and Chloro Sedai. I am to meet again with Alvana Sedai tomorrow.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'In your letter, you mentioned some tutelage in the ways of the White. Have you spent much time with any of my sisters?'

Mariah says 'I have not, Aes Sedai. I intend to reachout to Alison Sedai and Firimei Sedai as well at some point.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Mariah says 'Based off of my thoughts in the letter or what you saw in the class, have you thought of any White focused lessons that you think I might be able to benefit from?'

Raeza says 'It is good for you to reach out to us. I believe a good understanding of logic and reason is perhaps most relevant to the mission of the Grays, second only to the White itself.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'I have.'

Mariah smiles warmly.

Mariah reaches down and re-organizes the contents of her bag, reinforcing it with a slightly harder push than necessary.

Raeza says 'You mentioned my Ajahs well known appreciation for debates. I am not going to ask you to do a formal debate, though of course would never turn down the option...'

Raeza says 'But there are two skills the are critical to a good debate.'

Mariah thins her lips in concentration.

Raeza says 'One: to be able to make a convincing argument, without logical flaws.'

Raeza says 'Two: to be able to find the logical flaws in the arguments of others.'

Mariah nods along with the Aes Sedai, understanding so far.

Raeza says 'It occurs to me that negotiating a treaty is not so different than engaging in a debate in some ways.'

Raeza says 'Would you agree?'

Mariah says 'I definitely see the comparison and the overlap in skills necessary in each. I would say a skilled debator would have an edge in a negotiation.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'Precisely my thought as well.'

Raeza says 'Anyway, the topic I wanted to talk with you about is the idea of logical fallacies. Are you familiar?'

Mariah shifts further back into the chair, allowing her back to rest, whilse still maintaining appropriate posture.

Mariah says 'A logical fallacy is something that seems correct but is not?'

Raeza says 'Sometimes. More precisely, it is a case where an argument is given, but the logic of the argument is not sound.'

Mariah says 'So it is something you can disprove, through logical arguments.'

Raeza says 'As a debater, or dare I say a negotiator as well, it is critical to avoid fallacies in your own arguments, and to sniff them out in the arguments of those you are dealing with.'

Raeza says 'Some of the greatest Whites in the Tower history could catch a logical flaw in an argument that was a hair thin.'

Mariah strokes her chin briefly, thinking.

Raeza says 'Let me give you a couple of examples.'

Mariah says 'It is like giving your verbal opponent an opening they can sieze to control a discussion and move it in a direction favorable to themselves.'

Raeza says 'Logical fallacies often come when someone is trying to persuade you of something. An argument can be very persuasive based on illogical reasons, such as appealing to your emotional reaction, even if it is logically flawed.'

Mariah dutifully listens to the Aes Sedai's lesson.

Raeza says 'An example: Imagine I told you of a woman who could channel the One Power, who had a particular distaste for men, and who favored wearing red gowns and jewelry. '

Mariah moves her hands idly as she 'traces' the key concepts of the lesson.

Raeza says 'Which of the following statements would you say is more likely? The woman is an Aes Sedai, or the woman is an Aes Sedai of the Red Ajah?'

Mariah says 'Not to interupt, but I can't help but try to tie some of these concepts to some of the back-and-forth with Lady Aira and whether or not to publish a list of Dailies.'

Mariah returns quickly to Raeza's lesson.

Mariah says 'The Woman is an Aes Sedai of the Red Ajah is more specific.'

Raeza says 'We will return to your point about the list of dailies later.'

Raeza says 'Correct. It is more specific. Which statement is more likely?'

Mariah rolls her shoulders slowly to the back, easing the muscles slightly.

Raeza prods you to answer.

Mariah says 'My apologies, but I am not quite sure of the question.'

Raeza says 'Which of the two statements if more likely?'

Raeza says 'More probable?'

Mariah says 'Ah, so since there are more Aes Sedai of any Ajah rather than Aes Sedai of Red Ajah, the former statement is more likely.'

Mariah bonks her head at being dense.

Raeza says 'Correct, very good. Many people will say that the second statement is more likely, but that is a logical fallacy.'

Raeza says 'In fact, it is a mathematical fact that the second statement cannot be more likely.'

Mariah nods in agreement.

Mariah says 'A subset can not be larger than a superset.'

Raeza says 'We can think of the edge cases.... in the event that all Aes Sedai are Red Ajah, then the two statements have the same likelihood. In the event that Aes Sedai do not exist, they also have an equal likelihood. But in all other cases, the first must be more likely.'

Raeza says 'Correct.'

Mariah says 'I follow, Aes Sedai.'

Raeza says 'Good. This type of fallacy is a formal fallacy. It can be mathematically shown that the the conclusions does not follow.'

Raeza says 'It is known as the Conjunction Fallacy.'

Mariah smiles, making a mental note that mathematical fallacies make sense to her.

Mariah says 'Aes Sedai, may I take notes?'

Raeza says 'But many will say that the woman is more likely to be Red Ajah because they are relying on their familiarity that many Red Ajah members have those qualities. More so than other Ajahs.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'Of course.'

Mariah says 'Has anyone in this argument instead tried to claim that the correct answer is just: A woman?'

Raeza says 'So this is an example of how we can believe a logical fallacy based on other biases.'

Raeza says 'The premise was that it was a woman who could channel, so it is logically true that it is a woman, yes.'

Raeza grins evilly.

Mariah rummages quietly in her pack and pulls out a notepad and pen.

Mariah smiles

Raeza says 'If Nevirha is a woman and Nevirha can channel, then logically Nevirha is a woman who can channel.'

Raeza says 'Ok, one more example for you from me.'

Mariah writes the word FALLACY at the top of the page, underlining it, then listing the types below.

Mariah nods, leaning forward in mental preparation.

Raeza says 'Let us imagine that a wilder goes into some nation, let is say Tarabon, and causes many deaths due to irresponsible channeling.'

Mariah frowns but doesn't get distracted.

Raeza says 'Tarabon then decides that they are going to pass a law to ban all channelers from the country, and the Gray Ajah is send to discuss.'

Raeza says 'Their position is: Well, we have two choices. We can either do nothing, and have channelers continue to pour into Tarabon and kill our people. Or we can ban channelers so our people will be safe.'

Mariah taps her quill against her cheek, absently careful not to leave a mark of any kind.

Raeza says 'This is another type of fallacy. Do you have any thoughts about what is the problem?'

Mariah says 'It is proposing there are only two solutions to a problem.'

Raeza says 'Precisely!'

Raeza looks unusually excited for a White.

Raeza says 'Elaborate. What might you say to Tarabon in this scenario?'

Mariah appears reassured by Raeza's actions.

Mariah says 'Part of a third option also goes to why their proposed solution is not actually a solution.'

Raeza nods, beckoning you to continue.

Mariah says 'To ban channeling as a way to avoid trouble there must be a preventative measure. Meaning they must have a means to DETECT a channeler prior to causing trouble, rather than after the fact. Or they are in the same boat as doing nothing. Therefore a more proper solution is to enter into an agreement with the White Tower to detect Channelers and make the person safe prior to causing their nation harm.'

Mariah lets out a deep breath. What a mouth full.

Raeza taps her chin thoughtfully.

Raeza says 'Yes, very interesting. You have pointed out another problem in their argument that I was not considering. They do not have the means to enforce it.'

Mariah nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'Very interesting.'

Raeza nods approvingly.

Raeza says 'There are also many other options they could take that are arguably much more reasonable.'

Mariah says 'In a debate, this is where you mention that they are implimenting a policy just to do something, rather than to solve the problem.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'For instance, they need not ban all channelers. Members of the White Tower are trained in responsible use of the power, and in the case of Aes Sedai, bound by the oaths.'

Raeza says 'So, even if they could detect the channelers, they could ban untrained channelers from entering the city. An option not raised in the original argument.'

Mariah nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'This is sometimes known as a Fake Dilemma.'

Raeza says 'And it is a type of informal fallacy.'

Mariah adds another bullet in her notes titles Fake Dilemma.

Raeza says 'Strictly speaking, the logic of the argument is not necessarily wrong, but it is based on a false premise. In this case, based on the false premise that there are only two options of actions to take.'

Mariah frowns, then tentatively raises her hand.

Raeza nods at Mariah.

Mariah says 'I haven't quite followed. You've mentioned two classification of fallacies between formal and informal, but I haven't grasped the distinction between the two.'

Raeza says 'A formal one is one where the formal logic fails. For instance, it is asserted that Statement A entails Statement B is true, but it in fact does not.'

Mariah nods.

Raeza says 'As in the first case, where it can be proven through formal logic, with sets as you mentioned, that the simpler statement must be more likely than the complex one.'

Raeza says 'An informal one is one in which the premise of the argument is not well founded.'

Raeza says 'As in the second case, where it is implied that there are only two options as a premise, but in fact that premise is wrong. There are more options.'

Mariah says 'Thank you for the explanation, Aes Sedai.'

Raeza says 'There are many different types of informal fallacies, and they come up very frequently in many types of persuasive writing or speech.'

Raeza says 'Often used even intentionally as a persuasive, perhaps deceptive, technique you could even say.'

Mariah gets a thoughtful look on her face as she listens.

Raeza says 'So, you see, it is critical that you are able to spot them when they occur. Especially as a Gray, I would argue.'

Mariah says 'I agree completely.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'I think this might connect somewhat with your comments about the list of dailies from earlier.'

Mariah says 'Though, perhaps you may not agree, but they could also be useful to employ if you felt you could get away with it.'

Mariah says 'As a negotiator, a plea to emotion or ego with an argument that wasn't...entirely logically sound, but not a lie, could benefit an argument against the right person.'

Raeza says 'Indeed. And I imagine one could even argue that Aes Sedai are very skilled at allowing certain fallacies to be believed. We cannot lie outright, after all.'

Raeza grins evilly.

Mariah grins.

Raeza says 'Do you think this connects with the issue of the daily quests?'

Mariah strokes her chin.

Mariah says 'That is the crux of the issue. If there are good arguments on both sides, how do you get to the right decision.'

Mariah says 'I obviously did not go into the subject in detail, as I did not want to derail the class that could have easiely ended up longer than it was.'

Raeza says 'Well, we need not discuss here whether or not it is the "correct" thing to do, particularly since your notes may end up in a public forum at some point, who knows.'

Mariah says 'But I kept getting drawn to her main argument against being that Darkfriends, of whom they found one recently, who could use it against the intended purpose.'

Raeza says 'But one thing did occur to me.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'The thing that occurred to me was that the premise seemed to be that if the Accepteds have a list of the daily tasks, the list will get out, making it dangerous. But if not, it will not become dangerous.'

Raeza says 'I did question that premise.'

Raeza says 'It occurred to me that with so many soldiers in the Cairhienan force, all of whom have this information, the odds of it being leaked are very high whether or not it is provided to the Accepteds.'

Mariah says 'One, that's an impossible thing to guard against and do any action or project of worth. Two, Darkfriends are spending all their resources on disrupting the lands, and they will accomplish the stated goal even without any benefit coming from the program I specified. And lastly, forcing the hand of a darkfriend in that way could lead to detection.'

Raeza says 'The likelihood seems high with so many soldiers involved.'

Raeza says 'That there will be leaks anyway.'

Mariah says 'I also thought it was a juxtaposition between the situation that had JUST happened, where by having us proactively engage on the topic that we contributed the solution to one of her own Dailies that she did not know.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Raeza says 'Yes, that was a curious chain of events. I agree.'

Raeza says 'Well, this has gone on for quite some time.'

Raeza says 'If you wish to study more on the topic, I would accept a report from you, either in writing or in person.'

Mariah says 'Thank you, Aes Sedai, I will consider how this can be applied to my studies.'

Raeza says 'A brief summary of two or three additional types of fallacies, with an example of each.'

Raeza says 'Optional of course.'

Mariah rises from her chair in a smooth motion, gathering her things.

Raeza says 'But if you wish to send me such a report, or give it to me in person, I will award you for it.'

Mariah ponders the task for a moment.

Mariah says 'So, to research into logical argument textbooks to find types of fallacies that we have not covered tonight?'

Raeza says 'Yes, precisely.'

Mariah adds on quickly 'With an example of each.'

Raeza says 'Given your current station, examples related to the Gray Ajah mission, negotiations and such, would be prudent.'

Raeza says 'But not strictly necessary. Any examples would do.'

Mariah says 'I will make note of the assignment. I wish to be mindful of your time, but thank you very much for this meeting, and for attending my class.'

Raeza nods in agreement.

Mariah curtseys before her.

Raeza says 'Very well, I hope you have learned something to help you in your studies.'

Raeza says 'Light illumine you Accepted. You may go.'

No-one by that name here...

Raeza gestures with her hand.

The door smoothly swings open.

Mariah says 'I certainly have learned something from you. Thank you.'

Continuing Down the Hall
A frieze depicting leaves of dwarf bonsai bonsai fig, feathery eastern
maple and cherry leaves and their blossoms lines the top of the plain white
walls, which have been lined with silvered stand-mirrors. Simple tapestries
of snowcapped mountains, shady forests and stands of bamboo with sunlight
slanting through them, offer a soothing backdrop for those who seek
meditation, truth and enlightenment.
[ obvious exits: N E S W ] [ E: thickdoor S: door ]
A young girl in a plain white dress stands here.
A Green Sister struts about the halls.
A young girl in a plain white dress stands here.

[Catisune]

Awarded Mariah 3 rpqps and Raeza 2 rpqps. See any silver-haired Aes Sedai to receive them.