Wheel of Time MUD

[quote=Eol post_id=126468 time=1626545585 user_id=871]
# 1 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[17] Con[16] Hps[336] Move[128]
# 2 - Str[17] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[129]
# 3 - Str[17] Int[15] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[310] Move[128]
# 4 - Str[19] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[340] Move[130]
# 5 - Str[16] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[16] Con[19] Hps[391] Move[134]
# 6 - Str[19] Int[10] Wil[15] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[334] Move[131]
# 7 - Str[15] Int[12] Wil[11] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[366] Move[132]
# 8 - Not good enough...
# 9 - Str[18] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[19] Hps[404] Move[132]
#10 - Str[15] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[17] Hps[345] Move[133]
#11 - Str[14] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[132]
#12 - Str[17] Int[11] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[18] Hps[376] Move[131]
#13 - Str[19] Int[15] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[307] Move[127]
#14 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[15] Dex[15] Con[17] Hps[372] Move[132]
#15 - Str[14] Int[14] Wil[14] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[314] Move[127]
#16 - Not good enough...
#17 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[311] Move[127]
#18 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[16] Con[18] Hps[368] Move[129]
#19 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[15] Hps[318] Move[127]
#20 - Str[16] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[308] Move[124]

I've felt for awhile like only 19 con is reliable. 18 in game can produce 380ish at 51, but 17-18 just cover too great a spread. I'm pretty grateful to the Imms/Vampa/whoever for making the human cons 19 in the new prerolled since I think it greatly increases the likelihood that a character will have satisfying hps.
[/quote]

Assuming these rolls are for a level 51 character then they are all below the expectation except for #14 which is above.

I don't have any data this time however anecdotally I haven't seen outright 'good' hps roll since the change was put in.

# 1 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[17] Con[16] Hps[336] Move[128]
# 2 - Str[17] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[129]
# 3 - Str[17] Int[15] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[310] Move[128]
# 4 - Str[19] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[340] Move[130]
# 5 - Str[16] Int[14] Wil[12] Dex[16] Con[19] Hps[391] Move[134]
# 6 - Str[19] Int[10] Wil[15] Dex[19] Con[16] Hps[334] Move[131]
# 7 - Str[15] Int[12] Wil[11] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[366] Move[132]
# 8 - Not good enough...
# 9 - Str[18] Int[12] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[19] Hps[404] Move[132]
#10 - Str[15] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[17] Con[17] Hps[345] Move[133]
#11 - Str[14] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[18] Hps[370] Move[132]
#12 - Str[17] Int[11] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[18] Hps[376] Move[131]
#13 - Str[19] Int[15] Wil[12] Dex[17] Con[15] Hps[307] Move[127]
#14 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[15] Dex[15] Con[17] Hps[372] Move[132]
#15 - Str[14] Int[14] Wil[14] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[314] Move[127]
#16 - Not good enough...
#17 - Str[17] Int[14] Wil[13] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[311] Move[127]
#18 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[15] Dex[16] Con[18] Hps[368] Move[129]
#19 - Str[18] Int[13] Wil[12] Dex[19] Con[15] Hps[318] Move[127]
#20 - Str[16] Int[16] Wil[12] Dex[18] Con[15] Hps[308] Move[124]

I've felt for awhile like only 19 con is reliable. 18 in game can produce 380ish at 51, but 17-18 just cover too great a spread. I'm pretty grateful to the Imms/Vampa/whoever for making the human cons 19 in the new prerolled since I think it greatly increases the likelihood that a character will have satisfying hps.

The probability of the observed outcome is about 9.712*10^-48. Roughly as likely as winning the Mega Millions jackpot six times in a row.

It's still a dice roll. In my case, rerolls always yielded much better than leveling, so I don't recognize this at all.

Also, with all the fc homelands I've changed and subsequent rerolls, I've not noticed that rolling lower either.

Bad luck happens.

| CON | LEVEL | EXPECTED | N. ROLLS < | N. ROLLS > |
|-----+-------+----------+------------+------------|
|  15 |    39 |    322.0 |         23 |          0 |
|  16 |    39 |    338.0 |         15 |          0 |
|  17 |    39 |    353.5 |         14 |          2 |
|  18 |    39 |    369.5 |         16 |          0 |
|  19 |    39 |    400.0 |         15 |          0 |
|  15 |    33 |    316.0 |         14 |          0 |
|  16 |    33 |    332.0 |         30 |          0 |
|  17 |    33 |    347.5 |         18 |          0 |
|  18 |    33 |    363.5 |         15 |          0 |
|  19 |    33 |    394.0 |         10 |          0 |

There is a problem with how hit points are calculated on age-based rerolls. For any given con value, the average number of hit points you get is significantly lower than if you had statted and levelled the char today. I recently rerolled two very old chars I had forgotten about. Here is a table of their hit points rolls better and worse than the expected value grouped by con for 15 con or higher:
[code]
| CON | LEVEL | EXPECTED | N. ROLLS < | N. ROLLS > |
|-----+-------+----------+------------+------------|
| 15 | 39 | 322.0 | 23 | 0 |
| 16 | 39 | 338.0 | 15 | 0 |
| 17 | 39 | 353.5 | 14 | 2 |
| 18 | 39 | 369.5 | 16 | 0 |
| 19 | 39 | 400.0 | 15 | 0 |
| 15 | 33 | 316.0 | 14 | 0 |
| 16 | 33 | 332.0 | 30 | 0 |
| 17 | 33 | 347.5 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 | 33 | 363.5 | 15 | 0 |
| 19 | 33 | 394.0 | 10 | 0 |
[/code]
One expects that the number of rolls less than the expected value should be roughly equal to the number greater than the expected value but it clearly is not. Imagine tossing a coin 170 times and it only comes up heads 2 times. You can safely conclude that the coin is not fair. In the same way, this data proves that the hps rerolling algorithm is incorrect.

The difference is very large. For example, the 19 con reroll I went with for my level 33 guy had 373 hit points - 21 less than the expected.